USD/CAD to sckyrocket to 1.25 by end-2021
The
loonie takes the top spot on the leaderboard by a wide margin for
performance against the greenback so far this year, as its up by over
5%. According to economists at CIBC Capital Markets, CAD is reaching an
inflection point, as its shine will be dulled by an expected relative
outperformance in the US economy ahead.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
The Bank of Canada is likely to be less newsworthy than the Fed
“Most
of the key forces behind that trend don‘t look to have staying power,
and we, therefore, maintain our call for a weaker CAD to end the year.
But we’ve tempered the degree of softness in line with recent
appreciation and a somewhat firmer range for oil this year, and we look
for USD/CAD to end 2021 at 1.25.”
“The expected depreciation ahead
will initially come from a more hawkish tone from the Fed. That might
not begin to play out for a month or two, but by September, with enough
job gains in the books, we see US central bankers announcing an
impending tapering for early 2022.”
“The loonie will also have its
wings clipped as the resource price rally loses steam in 2022. The OPEC+
countries have remained a bit more reticent than we expected in terms
of unleashing supply, and Irans status is not yet clear. While that has
eased some of the cap on crude oil prices, we still expect supply to
come on board from these countries to prevent a further, sustained crude
appreciation in the next couple of years.”
“The return of
international travel, where Canada runs a large services trade deficit,
will also weigh on the loonie, as part of an overall move that swings
Canadas current account surplus back into deficit.”
The Wall