How To Use Technical Analysis In Forex Markets
When it comes to
the global foreign exchange market, buyers and sellers of currencies
determine the rates of one foreign exchange instrument versus others on a
real-time basis. At the same time, governments manage the level of
currency volatility to maintain stability. Technical analysis can be
particularly useful in the currency markets as technical levels can
provide clues about levels where government intervention is likely to
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Technical
analysis includes support and resistance levels where currency pairs
tend to find lows and highs. At the same time, price momentum indicators
often signal where exchange rates are running out of steam on the up
and the downside.
Futures markets for currency pairs reflect the price action in the OTC market
In
the world of foreign exchange, the over-the-counter market is the most
liquid and actively traded arena. The OTC market is a global and
decentralized venue for all aspects of exchanging the currency of one
country for another; it is also the largest market in the world. In
April 2019, the average trading volume was $6.6 trillion per day. The
OTC market operates twenty-four hours per day, except for weekends.
Futures
markets for currency pairs are smaller, but they reflect the price
action in the OTC market. When it comes to technical analysis, the
futures market provides a window into the price trends and overall state
of the strength or weakness of one currency versus another.
Volume and open interest metrics provide clues for price direction
The
dollar versus the euro currency pair is the most actively traded
foreign exchange relationship as both foreign exchange instruments are
reserve currencies.
The chart of the dollar versus the euro futures
contract displays the price action in the currency pair. The bar chart
on the bottom reflects the daily volume, which is the total number of
transactions. The line above volume is the open interest or the total
number of long and short positions.
When volume and open interest
are rising or falling with the price, it tends to be a technical
validation of a price trend in a futures market. When the metrics
decline with rising or falling prices, it often signals that a trend is
running out of steam, and a reversal could be on the horizon. Volume and
open interest are two technical metrics that aid technical traders
looking for signs that a trend will continue or change.
Beneath
the weekly price chart, the slow stochastic is an oscillator that aims
to quantify the momentum of a price rise or decline. Stochastics work by
comparing closing prices with price ranges over time. The theory behind
this technical tool is that prices tend to close near the highs in
rising markets and near the lows in falling markets.
A reading
below 20 indicates an oversold condition, while over 80 is a sign of an
overbought condition. On the weekly chart of the euro versus the dollar
currency pair, the reading of 31.42 indicated that the stochastic
oscillator is falling towards oversold territory in a sign that the
downtrend could be running out of steam.
The relative strength
indicator compares recent gains and losses to establish a basis or the
strength of a price trend. A reading below 30 is the sign of an oversold
condition, while an overbought condition occurs with a reading above
the 70 level. At 45.55 on the weekly dollar versus euro chart, the
indicator points to a neutral condition in the currency pair.
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