The U.K.s recovery is still looking V-shaped and the economy has clawed
back about half the output it lost in March and April, Bank of England
chief economist Andy Haldane said Monday.To get more news about
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“This plainly has been a recovery and a pretty sharp one,” he told
lawmakers on Parliaments Treasury Committee. “As has been the case of
course globally -- in that sense we have seen a bounce-back, so far it
has been a V. That does of course not tell us where we might go next.”
Haldane dissented at the BOE‘s June meeting, voting against expanding
asset purchases. He’s since come across as more upbeat about the economy
than Governor Andrew Bailey and fellow policy maker Silvana Tenreyro,
who will also address lawmakers this afternoon.
Haldane said the economy likely hit its floor in April, and about half
of the roughly 25% fall in activity in March and April has been
regained. But he noted that labor market figures are “understating the
unemployment problem” and policy makers are monitoring the job situation
carefully.
Were “by no means out of the woods on activity or jobs, but materially better than expected two or three months ago,” he said.
BOE officials will publish updated forecasts at their next policy
meeting on Aug. 6. They have been reviewing tools at their disposal,
including negative interest rates, after cutting rates to a record low
0.1% and expanding their bond-buying program.
“There is plainly less room for monetary maneuver as a result of this
crisis, be that interest rates or further QE,” Haldane said. “But less
room for maneuver is not no monetary maneuver at all.”
Negative interest rates could potentially encourage further borrowing,
though they would also have downsides like a squeeze on banks margins,
he said.
The Wall