Over the past few years, NBA offenses have become increasingly reliant on the 3-pointer. In the 2011-12 season, the average team attempted 14.8 3-pointers a game. Lastseason, that average jumped to22.4. And yet, the Memphis Grizzlies have stubbornly resistedthe wildproliferation of shooting from beyond the arc. They have finished lastor second-to-lastin 3-point attempts in each of the last three seasons.Over that time span, than any other team in the league a gap identical to the span between16th- and29th-rankedteams in the same category.As to why the Grizzlies have been at the bottom of the league in3-point attempts, it can be attributedmostlytoMike Conley, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen.MORE:Conley averaged just 1.7 pull-up 3-point attempts per game last season, which places him in the among starting back court players. That was actually a slight increase from the year before, whenhe averaged
Edwin Encarnacion Jersey 1.4. The teams who have leveraged 3-pointers as an enormous part of their offense the Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers, Portland Trail Blazers andLos Angeles Clippers all have a primary ballhandler who is a prolific, off-the-dribble 3-point shooter.This puts a huge amount of stre s on the defense, because it means a defense has to extend their pick-and-roll coverage above the 3-point line to avoid being burned. Conley simply isn't that style of point guard.The wing positions have traditionally been where teams generate their 3-point shots. Every rotational decision on the wing involving Allen presents a stark contrast between offense and defense. Allen has played in 80 percent of Memphis' games over the past three years, averaging . By box plus-minus, a box score-derived estimate of a player's impact per 100 po se sions, he has been in the league over that stretch, and by an enormous margin.Shaun Livingston is the whohas played at least 4,000 minutes during that same time span and attempted fewer 3-pointers. Allen makes the Grizzlies better when he is on the floor, but he does
Roberto Perez Jersey so in a constricted way.The last 3-point lever is Zach Randolph, though he is mostly symbolic of a front-court rotation that has emphasized brawn and defensive ability. Teams that build around outside shooting are usually looking to add an extra shooter at power forward, either with or
Bob Feller Jersey by playing smallball. Memphis has occasionally dabbled with playing shooters like Jon Leuer or Jeff Green alongside Marc Gasol, but Randolphorplayers of a similar skill set like Ed Davis or Darrell Arthur play most often.It seems like every offseason Memphis has looked to bolster it's outside shooting with additions on the wing. Two summers ago it was Mike Miller. Last year it was Vince Carter. This year they've added Matt Barnes, perhaps with the intention of getting shooting morewithout sacrificing defense. The thing is, the way Memphis'roster is constructed, it's still a choice between emphasizing shooting and focusing on size and shooting. While they might be able to spread the floor more and squeeze outmore offensive efficiency by chaining Allen to the benchor playing small with Green or Barnes at power forward, the resulting hit to their defense almost certainly makes it a net negative move.That conundrum doesn't look to have changed with their 2015-16 roster,so it's unlikely that the team suddenly increases their 3-point rate this season. In a
Manny Ramirez Jersey vacuum, analytics love the 3-pointer. But basketball isn't played in a vacuum. The most importanttakeaway from the rapid increaseof basketball analytics has been to find the most efficient style of play po sible, given the strengths and weakne ses of the players on the team.Memphis has had tremendous succe s without the 3-pointer, underscoring the insight of analytics that to succe s. The Grizzlies have had a top-10 defense each of the last three seasons, and have built their identity around that end of the floor. Their offense which has actually been within a point per 100 po se sions of the league average all three seasons is buoyed by a high offensive rebound rate and a low turnover rate. The recipe of elite defense and averageoffense has been enough to push them to threeof 50-win seasons. It has also been not quite enough to get them over the hump in the playoffs.This leaves an incredibly interesting question about this team: "Have they maxed out their potential playing this style?"The Grizzlieshave been an elite defensive team and an average offensive team. Interesting playoff matchups notwithstanding, that margin hasn't been enough to catapult them into the Western Conference's toptier. It's hard to imagine their defense performing better than it already has. It's also
Mike Napoli Jersey hard to imagine how the Grizzlies' offense performs much better than it has, given the style of play thieirroster demands.For Memphis to truly compete for a championship, they will likely facethe challenge of maximizing performance through minortweak and improvements on the margins. This summer we watched the Indiana Pacers dealwith the same i sue and decide to tear it downrather than keep butting up against their ceiling. They chose a different path than Memphis, but there are no guarantees for them either.Shooting more 3-pointers is not going to get Memphis an NBA championship this season. They're hopinghealth and a little added depth will be the key instead. But don't be surprised if this Grizzlies team looks stunningly familiar:ferocious defense and agritty, grinding offense. Good, but not quite good enough.
The Wall