Jack Ma's Ant IPO Tests China's Tolerance of Entrepreneurship
China
has made a habit of confounding many of the predictions made about it
beyond the main one of growth. Prognosticators and pundits have long
made calls on how opening the economy would move China along the road to
more of a democratic model. While China has opened up in many, many
ways in the past few decades, President Xi Jinping has removed his own
term limits and looks to be consolidating more power in the ruling
party. So in some ways, China is moving further away from democratic
reform even as it continues down the road of opening its economy.To get
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The
version of the market economy that China has embraced is similarly
uneven. Owning a small to medium-sized business in China is encouraged,
and entrepreneurship was a major driver of growth in the economy. Due to
the scale of China's economy, many medium-sized businesses are in fact
quite large in terms of global ranking. However, large sections of the
domestic economy still have state-owned enterprises (SOEs) at the top,
which work in concert with regulators.
Somehow, China still
continues to push ahead through what appears to be a maze of
contradictions to outside observers. Case in point: we are looking at
the seeming censure of Jack Ma, one of China's most successful tech
entrepreneurs, but this saga is playing out at the same time as China is
poised to give unprecedented access to its financial sector to Wall
Street investment banks.2
Jack Ma is China's richest person,
and he created that wealth through Alibaba Holding Group Limited (BABA)
and its payment and financial service twin Ant Group that grew out of
Alipay—a system designed to support the core e-commerce business. The
two companies taken together have an enormous presence in China and have
enjoyed surprisingly little regulatory pushback up until now.
There
were skirmishes between Ma's companies and the Chinese regulators, but
the intensity has been heating up in the past few years. Alibaba now
finds itself under an antitrust investigation, Ant is in the targets of
regulators at the People's Bank of China (the central bank), and new
draft antimonopoly rules seem squarely aimed at Ma's empire, as they
deal specifically with consumer data and differential pricing. The
question is why this is all happening now.
The answer seems to
be that Ma upset the wrong people. A speech given by Ma in Shanghai in
October where he was very critical of regulators has been reported as
the trigger for President Xi personally intervening to halt the IPO and
force Ant Group to shrink down to a pure payments service.3
Whereas
Alibaba sticks largely to e-commerce, Ant's fintech presence ultimately
encroaches on an area where SOEs still rule—banking and financial
services. So even as China opens up part of its financial sector to
foreign financial firms, it is moving to rein in homegrown competition
to state-owned commercial banks.
The Wall