Will a Double Bottom Pattern Spark Price Gains?
Gold
suffered significant declines in late February and early March as US
Treasury yields grinded higher. Losses saw XAU/USD blow through various
levels of technical support until the lower bound of the metals
descending channel helped to arrest declines around the $1,675 mark. A
picture-perfect bounce off the trendline and subsequent bounce off a
nearby Fibonacci level has seen gold recover somewhat and recent price
action has formed a double bottom technical pattern as a result.To get
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Generally
viewed as a formation that precedes bullish price action, the recent
double bottom pattern could hint gold may look to continue higher in the
days ahead. Fundamental concerns remain to be sure, but a recent lack
of progress in US Treasury yields and US Dollar weakness has opened the
door for gold to recoup some losses. Still, despite the potentially
bullish technical pattern, there is little to suggest the broader
downtrend will be snapped.
Nevertheless, the pattern could
allow for range trading opportunities. Initial resistance in the event
of a continuation higher resides around the $1,765 mark which coincides
with the metals November 2020 low. Should gold drive through early
resistance, $1,800 may materialize as a secondary barrier.
A
move to $1,800 would see gold successfully retake the midpoint of the
descending channel where it could then take aim at a series of moving
averages overhead. Either way, conviction will be required to fulfill
the double bottom pattern, so a sizable move through the $1,765 would be
an encouraging sign at this stage.
Although gold bulls may look to
capitalize on the technical pattern and relatively accommodative
fundamental backdrop, traders should continue to monitor the US 10-year
Treasury yield. Rising yields have been a source of weakness for gold
and if yields climb further, gold might enter another stage of weakness
and seek support – despite technical patterns that might hint otherwise.
While
XAU/USD looks to recover from months of declines, the gold miners ETF,
GDX, has taken aim at the topside of an unsurprisingly similar
descending channel. To that end, the fund tracks the stock price of
companies that generate their revenue from gold. Thus, higher gold
prices translate to higher profits for the miners which is then
reflected in the price of GDX. In general, the gold miners fund
experiences greater volatility than its metal counterpart and its ascent
to the top of its trading range while gold languishes beneath is
somewhat indicative of that dynamic. While GDX typically offers little
indication of future gold prices, its heightened volatility may give
rise to a break higher in the fund if gold prices continue to rise
modestly – something to consider for traders in search of price action.
That said, volatility is a double edged sword so losses could accelerate
more quickly if gold turns lower once more.
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