Frenzy in Commodity Market: Energy Futures Remain Preeminent
A
boisterous situation can be seen where the marketplace of commodities
has witnessed bull markets of varying degrees recently. It is believed
that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) must be hustle and bustle
because of its business on diversified commodity futures against the
backdrop of increasing trading volumes. I was invited by CME to an
online lecture relating to NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil
futures (CL) last Friday, during which I shared my optimistic attitudes
to transient transactions conducted in this field where a bearish trend
could be encountered in the long run as numerous countries, including
China and America, have made their energy policies focusing on
environmental protection and new energy resources.To get more news
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According
to Reuters, the entire marketplace of energy futures has continuously
taken the lead, accounting for over 34.8% of the whole trading market,
which has surpassed that of the other industrial materials, such as
basic metals, livestock, crops, and precious metals. However, from my
long-term point of view, I am still positive about the performance of
basic metals, copper in particular, because of the economic recovery
worldwide and the increasing demand for electric automobiles. In fact,
every type of commodity futures harbors its advantages in the short
term. Even gold, weak in the first quarter, has been boosted by the
worsening global inflation, the weakening of USD, and the plummet of
virtual currencies.
As for individual investors interested in the WTI
CL trading, it is worth mentioning that Micro WTI Crude Oil futures
(MCL) will be introduced by CME on July 12th 2021 to fine-tune the crude
oil market exposure up or down in 100-barrel increments (the size of
one contract). This figure is at a tenth of the size of the benchmark
WTI futures contract. The new MCL is believed to be popular among
individual investors as the cost of one contract is only around USD 530.
I
remain prudent but optimistic about the annual performance of oil
prices because they are favored in the short run by the situations where
the financial market is still playing up the continuous economic
recovery around the world, and Europe has kept the pandemic under
preliminary control and lifted the lockdown gradually, coupled with the
Middle East tensions. In addition, as we all know, oil prices generally
see more increases than declines in summer, the main reason for which is
that the Gulf of Mexico is often attacked by severe hurricanes in
summer that result in shutdowns caused by the destruction of the
refining infrastructure in the area, which is conducive to the growth of
oil prices.
However, the upward trend of oil prices may succumb to
the unstable performance of the American economic statistics in recent
months and the adjustments of varying degrees made by the global market.
Based on the contract analysis of the situation in July where the
largest trading volumes occurred, oil prices have dropped from the peak
at USD 67 impacted by the selling pressure but risen from the trough
close to USD 57 supported by the buying power since March, whereas the
latest figure for the supportive level is USD 60.56. If oil prices fall
back to the aforementioned trough, purchases of CL at low prices will be
induced, leading oil prices to a rally.
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